Extreme Weather over Antarctica and Beyond
Growing Influence of Atmospheric Rivers

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are long, narrow, and transient corridors of concentrated water vapor transport, often associated with a low-level jet ahead of a cold front and an extratropical cyclone. They play a significant role in transporting moisture from lower to higher latitudes, profoundly impacting both mid-latitude and polar regions.

ARs in Antarctica can trigger surface melting, contributing to ice shelf collapse and threatening ice sheet stability, while extreme snowfall can offset ice loss. ARs connect different Earth systems by transporting large amounts of moisture. These complex dynamics create significant uncertainty in future Antarctic ice mass balance and sea level rise (SLR) projections.

In the western U.S., ARs are vital for water resources and drought relief but have caused over 80% of flood damage in the past 40 years, with risks increasing in a warming climate. Recent studies also highlight ARs’ impact on water supply and extreme weather in continental interiors. The surface impacts of AR-related extreme weather depend heavily on the characteristics of the AR, whether it is a singular extreme event or part of a sequence of events, and how it interacts with pre-existing weather systems.

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My research focuses on extreme weather events in Antarctica and beyond, investigating their dynamic and thermodynamic processes and compound impacts at both global and regional scales.

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Drawing on expertise in polar regions and the United States, I aim to address the complex challenges posed by climate variability and change, particularly in coastal areas vulnerable to sea level rise and extreme weather. By integrating regional climate models, reanalysis datasets, and satellite and ground-based observations, my research will enhance the understanding of natural hazards such as flooding, high-wind damage, and glacial failure. Additionally, it will assess the vulnerability of affected regions and support adaptation efforts in response to climate change.

Research Spotlights

3D simulations of temperature and water vapor mixing ratio over Larsen C

New Paper! Föhn-induced melting over Larsen C

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) can enhance föhn warming over the Antarctic Peninsula. High-resolution simulations reveal that differences in AR characteristics influence the magnitude of warming and melting over the Larsen C Ice Shelf. In particular, AR shape is closely linked to synoptic-scale circulation and reflects multiple AR characteristics, thereby modulating föhn warming by controlling the ability of incoming airflow to cross the Antarctic Peninsula's mountain barriers.

Read the paper · Nature Communications (2026)

Polar-WRF, ERA5, and observed radiative flux and cloud fraction at Siple Dome

New Paper! Evaluation of Cloud Parameterization in Polar WRF

We evaluated a double-moment mixed-phase cloud parameterization in Polar-WRF at Siple Dome, West Antarctica. Compared with observations, simulated radiative fluxes and cloud cover showed better agreement than ERA5 reanalysis. Using a unique surface energy balance dataset, this study identifies both improvements and remaining biases in model representations of cloud microphysics, providing insights for future model development and observational field campaigns.

Read the paper · Journal of Climate (2026)

Schematic of the March 2019 atmospheric river, cyclone, latent heat release, and associated circulation

Bomb Cyclone Intensified by an AR over the U.S. Central Plains

In March 2019, a strong atmospheric river (AR) originating from the Gulf transported abundant moisture inland and fueled a record-breaking bomb cyclone in Colorado, resulting in widespread winter weather hazards across several states. Our study indicates that mid-tropospheric latent heat release (LHR) coincided with the strength of the warm conveyor belt and played a key role in the deepening of the cyclone.

Read the paper · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (2025)

850-hPa temperature and wind and radar reflectivity during the January 2021 California atmospheric river and narrow cold-frontal rainband

Narrow Cold Frontal Rainband & Atmospheric River in California

Narrow cold-frontal rainbands (NCFRs) associated with landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) can produce intense rainfall, flooding, and debris flows in California. High-resolution simulations of the January 2021 event reveal that strong synoptic-scale forcing, frontogenesis, and upstream Rossby wave breaking drove the southward propagation, stalling, and pivoting of the NCFR, producing over 300 mm of rainfall in central California. Enhanced vertical wind shear modified precipitation structure, while moist absolute instability layer supported deep slantwise ascent and efficient precipitation production. This study highlights the role of synoptic- and mesoscale processes beyond orographic lifting and the value of high-resolution modeling for extreme precipitation and hazard prediction.

Read the paper · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (2023)

Research Projects

4. AR-Induced Natural Hazards in the U.S.

Supported by CW3E

Zou et al. 2023b, 2025a

#CompoundHazard #AR&OtherSystem

6. Expand to the Southern High Latitudes

In Prep

ARM Observations

#Cloud #Aerosol

Other Ongoing Projects

The Combined Influence of Initial Condition Errors in short-wave troughs (SWTs) and ARs on the AR Forecasts: Applying the Moist Adjoint Error Energy Metric to Diagnose Cases from AR Recon (ONR #N00014-24-1-2754)

#Upstream #SWT

AR-based Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) for Oregon (WEST Consultants, Inc.)

#PMP #ClimateChange #FutureProjection

Predecessor Rain Event in the Southern Appalachians Prior to the Hurricane Helene's Landfall (CW3E & NOAA)

#Upstream #PredecessorRain

Investigation of AR-associated Extreme Weathers over Antarctica via High-resolution Simulations and Machine Learning Models (NCAR HPC Exploratory Allocation & CW3E Summer Internship Program)

#AI

Publications


  • Bromwich and Zou, X. et al. (2026): "Interior Antarctica is undergoing marked climate change" Commun. Earth Environ., https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03384-4.
  • Gan et al. (2026b): "Tibetan Plateau Mountain Wave Simulation using AI-Driven 3D Adaptive Mesh Refinement" J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 131: e2025JD045585, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD045585.
  • Gan et al. (2026a): "Hymeshai: Deep learning enabled Three-dimensional adaptive mesh generator for high-resolution atmospheric simulations" J. Comput. Phys. 114760, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2026.114760.
  • Lubin et al. (2026): "Surface radiation trends at North Slope of Alaska influenced by large-scale circulation and atmospheric rivers." Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26: 295–311, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-295-2026.
  • Lubin et al. (2025): "Arctic Amplification Mechanisms Manifest as a Summertime Radiative Cooling Effect Over the North Slope of Alaska." Atmos. Chem. Phys., 1: 9-13, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2768.
  • Clem et al. (2025): "Chapter 7: Meteorology and Climate of Antarctica" in A. Taschetto, T. Ndarana, T. Ambrizzi (Eds.), Meteorology of the Southern Hemisphere, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009352680.009.
  • Rowe et al. (2025b): "Observations of Clouds and Radiation Over King George Island and Implications for the Southern Ocean and Antarctica," J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 130: e2024JD042787, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042787.
  • Rowe et al. (2025a): "Comparison of Cloud and Radiation Measurements to Models over the Southern Ocean at Escudero Station, King George Island," J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 130: e2025JD043563, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD043563.
  • Bromwich et al. (2025): "An Updated Reconstruction of Antarctic Near-Surface Air Temperatures at Monthly Intervals Since 1958," Earth Syst. Sci. Data., 17: 2953–2962, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2953-2025.
  • Wille et al. (2025): "Atmospheric rivers in Antarctica." Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00638-7.
  • Zhang et al. (2024): "Extending the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) atmospheric river scale to the polar regions." Cryosphere, 18: 5239–5258, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5239-2024.
  • Bromwich et al. (2024b): "Major artifacts in ERA5 2‐m air temperature trends over Antarctica prior to and during the modern satellite era." Geophys. Res. Lett., 51: e2024GL111907, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111907.
  • Bromwich et al. (2024a): "Winter Targeted Observing Periods during the Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH)" Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 105: E1662–E1684, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0249.1.
  • Hansen et al. (2024): "The importance of cloud properties when assessing surface melting in an offline-coupled firn model over Ross Ice shelf, West Antarctica." Cryosphere, 18: 2897–2916, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2897-2024.
  • Wille et al. (2024b): "The extraordinary March 2022 East Antarctica 'heat' wave. Part I: observations and meteorological drivers." J. Clim., 37: 757–778, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0175.1.
  • Wille et al. (2024a): "The extraordinary March 2022 East Antarctica 'heat' wave. Part II: impacts on the Antarctic ice sheet." J. Clim., 37: 779–799, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0176.1.
  • Wu et al. (2023): "A long short-term memory neural network-based error estimator for three-dimensional dynamically adaptive mesh generation." Phys. Fluids, 35: 106610, https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0172020.
  • Gorodetskaya et al. (2023): "Record-high Antarctic Peninsula temperatures and surface melt in February 2022: a compound event with an intense atmospheric river." npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 6: 202, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00529-6.
  • Orr et al. (2023): "Characteristics of surface 'melt potential' over Antarctic ice shelves based on regional atmospheric model simulations of summer air temperature extremes from 1979/80 to 2018/19." J. Clim., 36: 3357–3383, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0386.1.
  • Cerovečki et al. (2022): "Impact of downward longwave radiative deficits on Antarctic sea-ice extent predictability for subseasonal time scales." Environ. Res. Lett., 17: 084008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d66.
  • Bromwich et al. (2022b): "Antarctic data impact experiments with Polar WRF during the YOPP-SH summer special observing period." Q. J. Royal Meteorol. Soc., 148: 2194-2218, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4298.
  • Bromwich et al. (2022a): "The 16th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate and 6th Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere Meeting." Adv. Atmos. Sci., 39: 536–542, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1384-4.
  • Bromwich et al. (2020): "The Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH)." Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 101: E1653–E1676, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0255.1.
  • Zhang et al. (2019): "Comparison of three short-term load forecast models in Southern California." Energy, 189: 116358, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.116358.
  • Jones et al. (2019): Sixty Years of Widespread Warming in the Southern Mid- and High-Latitudes (1957- 2016). J. Clim., 32: 6875-6898, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0565.1..
  • Li et al. (2015): Advection errors in an orthogonal terrain-following coordinate: idealized experiments. Chin. Sci. Bull., 60: 3144-3152, https://doi.org/10.1360/N972015-00075.
  • Wang et al. (2015): Radiosonde Balloon Drift Characteristics and Its Impact on Divergence Calculated through Triangle Method of Three Stations in East China. J. Appl. Meteor. Sci., 26: 319-327, https://doi.org/10.11898/1001-7313.20150307.

In Review or In Preparation

  • O’Brien et al. (2026): "Lessons from Eight Years of the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project." Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. In revision.
  • Zou, X. et al. (2026e): "March 2022 East Antarctic heatwave under different background climate conditions." J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15007201/v1. In revision.
  • Gorodetskaya et al. (2026): "Observed and Projected Changes in Zero-Degree and Melting-Layer Height over the Antarctic Peninsula and its Ice Shelves." Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A. In revision.
  • Mattingly et al. (2026): "Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) polar synthesis." Cryosphere., https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5197. In review.
  • *Gan et al. (2026): "Interaction of a Fully Meridional Atmospheric River with the Antarctic Peninsula and Föhn Warming." Atmos. Sci. Lett. In review.
  • *Yang et al. (2026): "Synoptic Circulation Regimes Governing Atmospheric River Landfalls, Vertical Structure, and Surface Impacts over West Antarctica (1979-2024)." J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15010204/v1. In review.
  • González Herrero et al. (2026): "Winter heatwave event in June 2026 over the Antarctic Peninsula." Environ. Res. Lett., https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15009300/v1. In review.
  • Zou, X. et al. (2026f): "Comparison of Drought Relief Associated with Atmospheric River Activity Between the U.S. West and East Coasts." J. Hydrometeorol. Close to submission.
  • Fairbanks et al. (2026): "Structure, Evolution, and Meteorological Drivers of an Extreme Haboob in Southeastern California on October 6, 2022." Mon. Weather Rev. Close to submission.
  • Lin et al. (2026): "Impacts of Shortwave Trough-Atmospheric River (AR) Interactions on AR Forecasts over the U.S. West Coast." Weather Forecast. Close to submission.
  • Zou, X. et al. (2027a): "Impacts of Sea Surface Temperature over the North Pacific Ocean on Atmospheric River Development along the U.S. West Coast." npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. In prep.
  • Zou, X. and Bromwich (2027b): "Understanding the Better Agreement in Antarctic Springtime Warming Trends Between Climate Models and Observations." Geophys. Res. Lett. In prep.
  • Moore et al. (2027): "A diagnostic study of extreme rainfall over western North Carolina associated with Tropical Cyclone Helene during late September 2024." Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. In prep.

Field Campaigns

Antarctic Peninsula surface Mass and energy balance: the role of Atmospheric Rivers and microworlds-2025 (APMAR-2025)

Role: Non-cost Collaborator

Gorodetskaya et al. 2025

#FreezingLevel #RainOnSnow #Aerosol

Past

Real-time Antarctic AR Forecast

Open the full forecast website

Collaboration

Contact

  • Address

    9500 Gilman Drive
    La Jolla, CA 92093-0955
    United States

  • Email

    x4zou@ucsd.edu